La Trahison des images (The Treachery of Images), René Magritte
The famous pipe. How people reproached me for it! And yet, could you stuff my pipe? No, it’s just a representation, is it not? So if I had written on my picture “This is a pipe”, I’d have been lying! – René Magritte
Data, like art, is only a representation of reality, interpreted through the lenses of human perception. We use tools and methodologies to attempt to predict and understand the world around us, but ultimately, our calculations are flawed, filled with bias, error, and uncertainty.
In the midst of COVID-19, we are constantly being bombarded with new data points and regulations to inform our decisions during these trying times. However, as humans, when we’re provided with an overwhelming amount of information, we tend to go into a state of decision paralysis, where we lack the ability to fully process all the information available and rely on biases and heuristics to come to a decision.
As exemplified by Chidi from The Good Place below:
📊 I. Some data on COVID-19
Not to overwhelm you more by all the information that’s out there, but I pulled together a couple of insights and findings that might be interesting about the effects and spread of coronavirus.
For starters, according to the CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention):
- Symptoms may appear 2-14 days after exposure and include fever, cough, and shortness of breath
- The disease can spread from person-to-person within 6 feet and through touching surfaces or objects that enter the body through your mouth, nose, or eyes
- 13.8% of cases are severe and 6.1% are critical critical, which can result in bronchitis and pneumonia
For your friends who say that people are overreacting and it’s basically just the flu:
- COVID-19 is significantly more fatal than the flu
- The disease has spread exponentially and globally, and below are just the confirmed cases (I’ll touch on that later)
And if you’re still wondering what people mean when they say “social distancing” and “flattening the curve”
- As mentioned, the disease can spread from person-to-person, even if you’re not showing symptoms or aware you have it. That is why avoiding physical contact with other people is essential to containing the spread of the disease.
- We saw that during the Spanish influenza in 1918, Philadelphia ignored warnings, throwing a parade that killed thousands of people.
- If the disease continues to spread rapidly, our healthcare systems are not prepared to handle the impacts. That’s why dragging out the disease and “flattening the curve” is critical.
🧠 II. Considerations when interpreting data
There’s been a lot of data and discussion floating around about COVID-19, but when considering how to react and respond, keep a couple things in mind. Data does not tell the whole picture, due to:
- Errors in the data
- Human biases when interpreting data
- The factor of uncertainty
Errors in the data
Currently, there’s been a lack of test kits available in the United States, so the reported confirmed cases may be drastically off from the actual number of people with the disease. As shown from the Our World in Data chart below, the number of confirmed cases is significantly correlated with the number of tests conducted and as a country, the U.S. has conducted one of the lowest amount of tests per capita. Ultimately, the results of our data are only as accurate as the sources we use for it.
Human biases
Amidst the outbreak of the virus, xenophobia, particularly towards Asians, has become significantly prominent. From the fearful stares I get from others, to anecdotes of friends being told to “go back to Wuhan,” to losing business at restaurants such as the NYC institution Jing Fong, and the President calling it a ‘Chinese virus,’ concerns around how we treat one another are more imminent than ever.
When the first official case of the virus appeared in NYC from a woman who had traveled to Iran, the NYTimes and New York Post shared headlines featuring pictures of Chinese people in masks.
In these moments of fear and stress, we tend to react impulsively, without taking time to process the situation, and relying on heuristics and biases. One common heuristic is the association heuristic, when people associate certain words with others, which can indicate underlying attitudes or stereotypes one might have. We are often unaware of the unconscious biases we have, but have to reflect to understand how it might be negatively affecting our judgments. If you want to understand some of the underlying stereotypes you might have, you can check out Harvard’s Implicit Association Test.
In addition, you may still feel like this disease will not impact you much — you’re young, the symptoms may not be life threatening to you, and you just want to see your friends, go out, and have fun. Temporal discounting is the concept that we have a hard time conceptualizing losses in the future and value immediate satisfaction. The full impact of this disease may not come for months, but in the meantime, you should consider the long-term social, economic, and global health implications before deciding to go out and see friends.
Uncertainty
Finally, if I learned one thing in my course on Epistemology (before I dropped it), is you just don’t know what you don’t know, or you don’t know what you know, or you don’t know if you know that you don’t know it…?
Regardless, we have no way of fully predicting what will happen next — how long this disease will last, how fast it will spread, how much the economy will be impacted. Take precautions and make sure to:
🧼wash your hands
📏practice social distancing
💵be financially responsible
🛒stock up on any necessities you might need
🔑 III. Determining what matters
Recently, I attended a talk with Giorgia Lupi entitled “The Data We Don’t See” where she discussed some of her projects, specifically around the concept of data humanism. Through Giorgia’s work, she explores ways to capture and visualize data to represent meaningful information about people — their personalities and behaviors.
Aside from the reports and metrics that exist about COVID-19, ultimately you will have to weigh your options and understand how they will have an impact on your own life. Expected utility is calculated as the sum of utilities associated with each possible outcome, weighted by its probability.
In the past week, I’ve been weighing the options of whether or not I should go home or stay in NYC, considering the benefits and tradeoffs of being with family, being in a big house v my tiny apartment, risks of infecting my parents, risks of getting infected if I stay in the city, how it would impact my work, how long this might last, etc.
Ultimately, I can’t tell you what the best decision will always be for you during these uncertain times, but figure out what’s going to drive the most meaning and value to you, whether that be for your own physical and mental health, the health of your family and friends, or the societal impact you might have.
💕 IV. Taking care of each other and yourself through these times
Although these are difficult times, this is also an opportunity to come together and care for one another, while making sure to prioritize your own health and wellbeing.
🧘🏻♀️ Some personal wellness resources:
- 💻Stay connected and check in with friends, family, and coworkers
- Zoom lunches/happy hours are a fun option, especially with virtual background options to pretend you’re not quarantined!
- Interesting reads on how people are using digital tools to stay connected: “The Coronavirus Crisis Is Showing Us How to Live Online” and “True Tales of Quarantined Socializing“
- 💪🏼Many apps are offering free workout classes or trials, including:
- Down Dog: yoga, barre, and HIIT workouts
- Tone It Up: variety of fitness classes
- The Bar Method: barre classes
- 🍳 For those of you who’ve stockpiled their kitchen and trying to figure out what to do with all the excess food, this is a great time to try out new recipes:
- 🦒 And if you need a little something to brighten your day, watch live footage of animals at the San Diego zoo!
✨ Some inspiration in society:
- 👩🏻⚕️A plane full of Chinese COVID-19 experts arrived in Italy with 30 tons of medical supplies
- 🧼Guerlain’s production sites began producing hand sanitizer for free delivery to the French health authorities and the AP-HP, Paris’ public hospital network:
- 🛒Food banks are stepping up to provide meals for those in need. If you have the resources, donations to your local organizations help support others during these difficult times
On a final note:
Stay safe!
